Which London Boroughs Might See Rents Fall — Feb 2026

A timely, data-led guide (Feb 2026) mapping London boroughs most likely to record rent falls over the next 6–12 months. This piece draws on the latest Rightmove and Zoopla listing trends, ONS rental indices, GLA supply and Build-to-Rent (BTR) pipeline data, and Bank of England mortgage-stress indicators to identify six boroughs with the strongest downside signals. For each borough I explain why downward pressure exists (BTR oversupply, commuter-demand shifts, licensing or remediation costs) and give practical, tactical advice for renters who want to find bargains or negotiate better leases now.

Quick summary — the six boroughs to watch

• Tower Hamlets (Canary Wharf / Isle of Dogs)
• Southwark (Borough to Bermondsey)
• Lewisham (Deptford, New Cross)
• Newham (Custom House, Stratford fringe)
• Croydon
• Hounslow

These picks are not predictions that rents will fall everywhere in each borough — rather these are the neighbourhoods that show a combination of rising listings, strong BTR completions or pipelines, weak commuter demand shifts and landlord cost pressures that collectively increase the probability of rent falls in the next 6–12 months.

How I used the data (methodology)

• Rightmove & Zoopla: I analysed early-2026 listing trends and time-on-market signals. Boroughs where live lettings stock has risen materially year-on-year (often double-digit increases) and where average days-to-let have lengthened are flagged.
• ONS rental indices: the latest ONS private rental price series and regional sub-indices for Inner/Outer London are used to confirm slowing growth or falls in headline asking/transaction rents.
• GLA supply and BTR pipeline: the Greater London Authority’s reports on purpose-built PRS and BTR completions/certificates-of-lawful-development identify boroughs with heavy incoming supply.
• Bank of England mortgage-stress indicators: we consider where buy-to-let (BTL) landlords face the greatest stress (fixed-rate expiries, higher LTVs, higher re-financing costs) — this increases the risk of sales/lettings oversupply.

Where possible I cross-checked trends across sources. For example, a borough with both rising Rightmove listings and a heavy BTR pipeline scores higher in downside risk than one with just one of those factors.

Borough-by-borough breakdown (what to watch and renter tactics)

1) Tower Hamlets — Canary Wharf and the Isle of Dogs

Why it’s vulnerable

• BTR oversupply: The Isle of Dogs and Canary Wharf saw a large tranche of BTR completions in 2024–25 and more schemes practically completed in early 2026 (GLA pipeline data). Purpose-built PRS stock is concentrating in a small geography, creating direct competition for older flats.
• Commuter demand shift: Canary Wharf employment recovery has been uneven; flexible and hybrid working combined with lower tourism/business travel volumes mean fewer short‑stay and corporate lets.
• Listing pressures: Rightmove/Zoopla trends for early 2026 show higher live listings and longer days-to-let for studio/one-bed flats in several tower blocks compared with the same period in 2025.

What renters should do

• Target older walk-up blocks and ex-council conversions where there’s less professional management and more room to negotiate.
• Use the new-build overhang to your advantage: when BTR units advertise for 30+ days, landlords of nearby stock are likelier to accept offers ~5–10% below asking to avoid voids.
• Consider flexible move-in timing: mid-month viewings and offer submissions have lower competition.

Practical example: if a one-bed in Canary Wharf has an asking rent of £1,900 and the same-style BTR flat down the road has been on Rightmove for 40 days, begin with a written offer at £1,750 plus a 12-month tenancy and a guarantor — many managed landlords will consider a 6–8% discount to secure an immediate let.

2) Southwark — Borough, Bermondsey, Elephant & Castle fringe

Why it’s vulnerable

• Large new PRS stock: Southwark continues to be a magnet for BTR completions; the GLA shows multiple large schemes certified in 2024–26.
• Licensing and remediation pockets: some localised landlord licensing schemes and fire-safety remediation costs (older blocks) increase holding costs for smaller private landlords — some respond by cutting rents to keep tenants.
• Demand rebalancing: with central London offices continuing to adopt hybrid models, demand for small flats within walking distance of Waterloo and London Bridge is softer.

What renters should do

• Search across micro-markets: a Bermondsey flat may rent for less than a similarly sized Borough flat a short walk away; expand search radius to exploit micro-pricing.
• Ask agents for recent comparable lets (within the last 3 months) — these are stronger negotiation tools than historical averages.
• If remediation or licence work is needed, ask for a temporary rent reduction or compensation for noise/utility disruption.

Read more on practical energy-driven negotiation angles in How Renters Can Use Energy Retrofit Rules to Cut London Rent.

3) Lewisham — Deptford, New Cross and Creekside

Why it’s vulnerable

• BTR and PRS growth: Lewisham’s riverside and Deptford Creek areas have seen a wave of new-build PRS and BTR over the last two years. The GLA pipeline shows cluster completions that feed the same tenant pool as older local stock.
• Slower wage growth and commuter changes: some commuters who previously accepted longer Tube walks are now prioritising lower commutes, reducing demand for certain Lewisham pockets.
• Listing increases: independent local agents and portals in Q1 2026 show more flats available and a slight softening of asking rents for one-beds.

What renters should do

• Focus on landlords keen to avoid voids: offer a longer tenancy (18–24 months) or an upfront two-month deposit in exchange for a lower monthly rent.
• Use estate agents’ internal feedback: if an agent says “few viewings” or “owner wants to re-let quickly”, put a written offer — this beats casual verbal bids.

4) Newham — Custom House, Stratford fringe

Why it’s vulnerable

• Mixed licensing/remediation landscape: Newham has been active on selective licensing in parts of the borough; compliance and remediation increase landlord costs and sometimes depress asking rents in nearby areas.
• BTR and Olympic legacy supply: the Stratford / Custom House corridor still releases PRS stock from Olympic-era development and newer BTR schemes, creating competition for older flats.
• Rightmove/Zoopla signals: early-2026 data show increased stock in a number of post-Olympic developments and lengthening time to let in the lower-end one-bed market.

What renters should do

• Look for flats in less obvious blocks: end-of-terrace or smaller walk-up blocks typically have less professional management and more flexible pricing.
• Offer to take the property “as seen” (subject to safety/EPC checks) to speed the process — many small landlords prefer immediate moves over optimal price.

5) Croydon

Why it’s vulnerable

• Supply surge: Croydon’s multi-phase town-centre regeneration and BTR projects brought a large number of units to market 2024–26, increasing supply at the mid-market rent level.
• Commuter dynamics: improvements to the rail offer have levelled up day commuting but long-term hybrid working has reduced the premium some renters pay to be in Croydon town centre.
• Mortgage stress: outer-London landlords with high LTVs and expiring fixed rates are more likely to sell or convert to multiple occupancy, temporarily increasing available stock.

What renters should do

• Time your search: town-centre blocks often see new availability at predictable intervals (once new phases release). Set alerts and act quickly during releases.
• Negotiate extras: if the landlord cannot cut rent, ask for inclusive bills, a dedicated parking space, or appliance replacements to increase net value.
• Consider moving slightly away from the town centre to find landlord sellers more motivated to let quickly.

If you’re relocating as a young professional, cross-check Croydon opportunities against recommendations in Top 10 Areas for Young Professionals in London 2025.

6) Hounslow

Why it’s vulnerable

• Heathrow employment and local demand: air travel patterns, airline restructures and lower airport staffing in some segments have softened rental demand around the western corridor.
• New suburban PRS: recent suburban BTR completions close to Hounslow and Isleworth feed the same tenant pool.
• Days-to-let lengthening: early-2026 portal data suggest longer search cycles for ground-floor and studio flats in parts of the borough.

What renters should do

• Target landlord motivations: landlords who rely on airport-worker tenancies are more likely to accept mid-term discounts when staffing rosters alter.
• Offer a tenant profile that matches the landlord’s needs (e.g., shift-worker with a predictable roster); supply evidence to reduce perceived risk.

Practical steps renters can take across all boroughs

1) Build an evidence-based negotiation pack

Before you bid, prepare a short, professional package for the agent or landlord containing:

• A short personal summary (job, employer, working pattern) — emphasise stability if you have it
• Recent payslips or proof of income
• Rightmove/Zoopla comparables showing longer days on market or falling asking rents in the block or near street
• A clear offer: rent figure, tenancy length, deposit, and any extras (e.g., request for bills included)

This makes you stand out and turns negotiation into a data conversation, not just a haggling session.

2) Use timing and listing signals

• Mid-month moves: there’s usually less competition mid-month.
• Look for properties listed 21+ days — these are likelier to accept below-asking offers.
• Set multiple portal alerts for near-misses (e.g., add a slightly higher price band) — many bargains arrive one notch above your initial filter.

3) Negotiate non-rent concessions

If a landlord resists a rent cut, propose:

• One month free on a 12-month contract (spreads cost across the tenancy), or
• A small rent reduction plus utilities included, or
• Agreeing to minor repairs or decorating in exchange for a discount (get it documented).

A landlord may prefer an immediate let with a 2–4% reduced headline rent than a 0% rent but a three-month void.

4) Protect yourself with checks and documentation

• Check the EPC rating and ask about planned retrofit works; if significant works are scheduled ask for a rent discount for the disruption.
• Confirm licensing or remedial works status with the borough where applicable; some landlords will pass costs to tenants or reduce rents to keep occupancy.
• Use secure referencing and stay mindful of privacy: review tenant-data handling in light of AI and privacy checks — see Privacy & AI Checks When Renting in London: A Renter's Guide.

5) Leverage local market knowledge

• Use small independent agents and on-the-ground letting managers — they often have discretionary powers to accept offers agents for the portals won’t publish.
• Attend a high volume of viewings: local agents often prioritise applicants who show consistent activity.

Short scripts and numbers to try (examples)

• Conservative: Ask for 3–5% below asking if the property has been live 14–30 days and offer a 12‑month tenancy with two months’ deposit.
• Aggressive but realistic: If the same block has several available units, offer 6–8% below asking with a 12–18 month tenancy and immediate move-in.
• Non-rent concessions: Offer 0–3% below asking + one month free on a 12-month agreement — this reduces the landlord’s advertised income less than a headline 6–8% cut while improving your cashflow.

Write offers in email and reference comparable recent lets — agents respond better to documented offers than verbal ones.

Red flags landlords might use (and how to counter them)

• “We’ve had lots of viewings”: ask for proof of recent offers/closing dates; if the agent can’t show conversions, push your offer in writing.
• “The owner won’t budge”: ask to speak directly (briefly) or request a timeframe for reconsideration. Sometimes the agent negotiates after 1–2 weeks.
• “We can’t include bills”: offer a higher security deposit or propose a capped bills arrangement (e.g., utilities capped at a reasonable average).

When not to push for a big cut

• If a property is brand-new BTR managed by a corporate operator: discounts are less likely because marketing budgets and service models keep headline rents stable.
• If the landlord can rapidly relist at the same price (high local demand or shortage of alternatives) — in these areas focusing on other concessions (longer tenancy, repairs) may be better.

Final thoughts — act but be realistic

Feb 2026 shows clear pockets of weakness in London's rental market. Where BTR pipelines meet softer commuter demand and higher landlord cost pressures, the balance of power can shift towards renters. Tower Hamlets, Southwark, Lewisham, Newham, Croydon and Hounslow have the mix of signals that increases the chance of rent falls in the next 6–12 months, but outcomes will be micro-local: a single attractive block can still command premium rents.

Renters who prepare evidence-based offers, time their moves, and negotiate non-rent concessions will find the most success. Use the data (portal listing times, recent transacted rents from ONS, and local GLA pipeline maps) to turn intuition into leverage. For practical energy-driven negotiation angles see How Renters Can Use Energy Retrofit Rules to Cut London Rent and for neighbourhood decisions, compare options against our round-up of recommended areas for young professionals in 2025 Top 10 Areas for Young Professionals in London 2025.

If you prepare and move smartly, there are real opportunities in the current market: don’t wait for rents to tumble — start building your negotiation case now.